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Analysis
Disaster Science
Policy
Build Notes
Mission
Mission / Analysis
01

When Everything Breaks At Once.
The Real Guide to What's Coming.

Money, war, supply chains, the grid, the water, the food, your mind. No bunkers. No politics. Clear eyes and time to act, written by someone who has been paying attention across continents and decades.

May 8, 2026 25 min read
Disaster Science / Mission
02

The Library Is Burning.
And Nobody Is Calling It a Disaster.

I flew over the Amazon at sunset once. What I saw from that window changed something permanent in me. This is about what is being lost, not as an environmental headline but as a civilizational catastrophe hiding in plain sight. With recognition to Paul Rosolie, who has spent 20 years living inside what the rest of us only see from above.

May 16, 202611 min read
Disaster Science
03

When Cascadia Breaks.
The Western Hemisphere Has 15 Minutes.

A M9.0 rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone would be the deadliest natural disaster in American history. FEMA projects 13,000 dead, 1 million displaced, $30 billion in damage, all in the first hours.

May 202610 min read
Disaster Science
04

New Orleans Didn't Drown in Katrina.
It Drowned in 53 Levee Failures.

The wind didn't kill 1,833 people. The water did, and the water came from levees the Army Corps of Engineers had built to protect a city below sea level. What the USACE post-event survey revealed, and what ARA models from it.

May 20267 min read
Disaster Science
05

Oahu's North Shore Had No Warning.
It Should Have.

The March 2026 Kona Low produced Oahu's worst flooding in 20 years, but the ground signals were readable 6 hours before inundation. What the NWS knew, what the public didn't, and what a T-6hr panel changes.

March 20266 min read
Disaster Science
06

7.7 Million People Live on the
Same Fault That Destroyed San Francisco

The 1906 San Andreas rupture killed ~3,000 people in a city of 400,000. The fault hasn't moved. The population has grown 20×. What USGS ShakeMap data tells us about modern exposure, and what we modeled.

April 20267 min read
Disaster Science
07

Yellowstone.
The Eruption That Would End the American West.

The Yellowstone supervolcano is not overdue, that's a myth. Yet if it did erupt at VEI-8, the consequences would be continental. Ash across 23 states. A volcanic winter lasting years.

May 20269 min read
Mission
08

The Decision to Make ARA
Free for Everyone, Forever

A warning system that costs money is a warning system with a filter on who survives. That's not a product decision, it's a moral one. The Iulia Foundation exists because this question needed a permanent answer.

February 20265 min read
Policy
09

What SBIR Funding Actually Means
for Public Disaster Science

The NSF and NOAA SBIR programs exist to move innovation from proof-of-concept into operational infrastructure. Here's how ARA fits that pipeline, and why the grant narrative matters as much as the technology.

April 20266 min read
Build Notes
10

Why We Say TRL 3–4
and Mean It

Every simulation on ARA carries a Technology Readiness Level disclosure. Most platforms hide their limitations. We think transparency is the foundation of trust, and trust is what disaster preparedness runs on.

March 20264 min read
Build Notes
11

Building Behavioral Agents
That Actually Evacuate

Most disaster simulations move dots around a map. ARA agents make decisions: when to flee, when to shelter, when to drown. The behavioral engine behind the wildfire and flood simulations, explained plainly.

January 20269 min read
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